Make the return mean something

What did your
investment leave?

Your campaign can generate revenue and still leave very little for your business. I want you to see the costs, question the assumptions and make your next investment with a clearer view.

Estimate the return on one effort.

Choose a campaign, promotion or event and a defined measurement window. Enter the extra revenue you reasonably expect it added, then the costs required to earn it. The starting numbers are hypothetical. This model measures return relative to your marketing investment, before other overhead, tax and financing.

Your assumptions. Your target. A clearer decision.

Revenue is only the first part of the calculation.

Extra net revenueAbove your estimated baseline−Variable costsTo fulfill those extra sales−Campaign investmentInclude each cost once=Modeled net returnBefore remaining business costs

Estimated extra net revenue ($)The revenue you estimate this effort added above what would have happened anyway, after discounts and refunds, excluding sales tax. Use a credible baseline; do not automatically enter all platform-attributed sales.Variable costs of those extra sales ($)Product, delivery, transaction fees and other costs of fulfilling those extra sales. Use the same period or customer group as the revenue above. Do not include campaign costs here.Total campaign investment ($)Media, creative, agency fees, campaign labor and relevant tools. Include costs allocated to this effort once; do not repeat anything in variable costs.Your desired marketing ROI (%) Optional. Set a positive target that accounts for your remaining overhead, cash needs and risk. For example, entering 30 means a 30% modeled return on campaign investment. No industry target is assumed.

Your inputs are calculated in this browser and are not submitted or saved by this site. Dollar amounts are in USD. Results depend on your estimate of incremental sales; entering a number does not prove marketing caused it.

Illustrative example / campaign model

Modeled marketing ROI

20%

Net incremental return divided by campaign investment. This measures the entered effort, not your business's total net profit.

Yellow / Set your target

This model covers the entered costs. Set a positive ROI target that allows for your remaining overhead, risk and cash needs.

Contribution before marketing: $3,000.00Extra revenue minus variable costs
Modeled net incremental return: $500.00Contribution minus campaign investment
Your selected ROI target: Not setYour decision threshold, not a benchmark
Extra revenue needed for target: Set a targetHolds entered costs fixed; update costs if sales change

Each bar uses the same dollar scale. A loss is labeled as a shortfall.

Extra net revenue$10,000.00

Variable sales costs$7,000.00

Campaign investment$2,500.00

Modeled net return$500.00

A positive result leaves something after the costs you entered. It does not establish that all overhead is covered, cash has been collected or the same result will continue at a larger budget.

Use the result to ask better questions.

01 / The baseline

What would have happened anyway?

A repeat customer may have purchased without your campaign. Seasonality or a price change can move sales too. Start with a defensible estimate, then use controlled tests where practical. Try a lower incremental-revenue scenario and see whether your decision changes.

02 / The investment

Count the work behind the ads.

A $2,500 media budget is not the full investment if your team also spent money on creative, contractors, technology and delivery. Separate campaign work from variable fulfillment costs and count every included cost once.

03 / The business

Check the cash and the capacity.

A modeled return can be positive before a customer pays you. Review collection timing, cancellations and your team's ability to deliver. Decide how much cash you can commit while you wait for the result to mature.

Formulas, traffic-light rules and what this model leaves out

Modeled marketing ROI: (Estimated incremental net revenue − variable costs of those sales − campaign investment) ÷ campaign investment × 100. This is a campaign-level return on marketing investment. It is not an accounting calculation of company net profit or an all-cost investment ROI.
The worked example: $10,000 extra net revenue − $7,000 variable costs − $2,500 campaign investment = $500 modeled net return. $500 ÷ $2,500 × 100 = 20%. If the $10,000 is only attributed revenue, first estimate how much is actually incremental. These are illustrative assumptions, not typical results.
Required revenue for your target: Entered variable costs + campaign investment + (campaign investment × target ROI ÷ 100). This holds costs fixed. If more sales require higher fulfillment costs, update those costs before treating the result as a plan.
Red, yellow and green: Red: a negative modeled net return. Yellow: break-even, a positive return without a target, or a result below your selected target. Green: a positive return that meets your selected positive target. With $0 investment, ROI is undefined and no color score is assigned. Text labels make each result readable without relying on color.
Scope and timing: Use one measurement window and consistent revenue recognition. Enter dollars after discounts and refunds; exclude sales tax. This model omits any costs you do not enter, does not measure cash flow and does not discount future revenue to present value. It does not verify attribution or incrementality.
Compare like with like: An all-cost ROI can divide return by production plus advertising costs. This calculator divides by campaign investment after subtracting variable costs. Those denominators answer different questions; label the method when you compare results.

Need the terms in plain English? Understand CAC, MER, ROAS and ROI, then check your whole-business marketing efficiency.